It is August 2022, the US food supply chain is in a crisis right now. Much of this has to do with a number of factors:
- We are still rebounding from the Covid 19 Pandemic
- Massive drought in food producing areas in the US
- Skyrocketing fertilizer prices
- Over worked food supply chains that are beginning to buckle
These things are facts and already we are seeing a crisis reflected on grocery store shelves and rising prices taking place right now.
I read the following in Barron’s…
“None of the ranchers I know want to get out, but they have to,” Slatter says of the livestock liquidation. “Everybody is selling because they can’t feed them, and no one is buying the cows to raise.” That suggests more meat and lower prices in the near term.
The Texas Farm Bureau said in a report this past week that with much of the current breeding herd going to processing plants, calf numbers will fall in years ahead.
Just think about this folks, if everyone sells out of cattle now, what are we going to do later on?
AND THAT… is my concern.
With higher prices on seeds, fertilizer, fuel as well as supply chain issues taking place; all of these things are taking are a heavy toll on farmers.
What does this mean?
It means that while this winter (2022) we will have food on the table, come winter of 2023 the average family’s dinner table will look…. well lacking.
Here is the problem, after the winter of 2023, things will not turn around.
The world’s fertilizer reserve supply will basically run out in September of 2022. Right now, the world is tapping into the reserves because of the Russia / Ukraine war.
Russia and Belarus lead in the global potash trade is 40 percent. Russia alone exports about 20 percent of nitrogen and 10 percent of phosphate.
Fertilizer prices are increasing. Thus, the result of this will be higher grain and oilseed prices.
It takes an average of 1 – 3 years to actually make fertilizer. Fish emulsion, which I talk about later takes 1-2 years to truly get a good batch.
Currently the number of people whose food supply is insecure is about 800 million and people facing hunger is about 44 million. This number will most likely grow in the coming months.
What does this mean? We will see seriously increased poverty and in turn this will threaten social stability. A man will do just about anything to make sure he is able to feed his family and if he is backed against the wall, resorting to crime is what is necessary, he will do it.
The UN World Bank reports…
As of July 29, 2022, the Agricultural Price Index is 19% higher compared to January 2021. Maize and wheat prices are 16% and 22% higher, respectively, compared to January 2021, while rice prices are about 14% lower.
Domestic food price inflation remains high around the world. Information from between March and June 2022 shows high inflation in almost all low- and middle-income countries; 93.8% of low-income countries, 89.1% of lower-middle-income countries, and 89% of upper-middle-income countries have seen inflation levels above 5%, with many experiencing double-digit inflation. The share of high-income countries with high inflation has also increased sharply, with about 78.6% experiencing high food price inflation.
We in the US often think that we are secured against food shortages and famine, but with the massive droughts that California is facing, produce will be hit hard. They are the breadbasket of the US.
Beef from Texas and Oklahoma are suffering greatly due to the insane heat and drought. August beef prices will drop for a very short spell due to the glut of cattle being processes because the ranchers can’t feed or water them any longer. So they are selling off most of their herds, including their females who should produce next year’s cattle.
Wheat and cord from the Midwest is also suffering due to drought and many farmers are saying that they are beginning to experience a “Dust Bowl Effect” in their areas.
Things sound pretty grim and as much as I hate to say it, it is going to get worse before it gets better.
We are almost seeing a “Perfect Storm” when it come to our overall food supply chain and production here in the US.
So, What Can You Do?
If you are one who is able to look at this and start putting a plan in place to ensure that your family does not go hungry, here are some suggestions.
1 – Start buying beef NOW and freeze it, can it or dehydrate it. August beef prices are dropping due to the glut of beef. Take advantage of this gut and stock up on beef.
2 – Like with beef, we have entered the harvest season and produce prices are dropping. Many fruits and vegetables are going on sale just to move the produce. Start looking for produce that your family eats and start preserving the foods. Look into freezing, canning and dehydrating. I love dehydrating, look for my “how to” videos in the weeks and months ahead teaching you more about this method.
3 – Start buying up canned items that are on sale in bulk. The canned foods that you are buying now was grown last year. If farmers are not going to be able to grow crops due to the higher prices on seeds, fertilizer, fuel, that means that we will begin to seriously feel the effects of food shortage beginning in July and August 2023. Canned, Frozen as well as fresh foods will be much higher in price than what you are seeing this year (early fall to winter)
Look at food as an investment with the prices constantly going up.
TAKE ADVANTAGE of the lower prices of food items during the holiday season. Buy these things in bulk when you are able and start building up the pantry.
Keep an eye out for sales taking place at the grocery stores and again, buy in bulk and stock up on sale items.
4 – if you live in a temperate climate, put a fall garden in as fast as you can. I started a fall garden July 1 and if I have timed it right with our first frost, I should have a pretty good harvest that I can pull from and preserve.
5 – Again, if you are able, look into planting a winter garden.
Items like root vegetables like beets, sweet potatoes, radishes, and such.
Look into planting winter squash like butternut, sweet pumpkin and other squash that do not mind the colder temperatures.
Look into planting items from the cruciferous vegetable like cabbage, kohlrabi, broccoli, cauliflower and the like.
Research for your area and get some food growing. This will give you a head start for spring.
5 – Buy gardening fertilizer in large amounts and plan for a spring garden. If you have the space in the back yard, dig it up and create planting rows. Nice green lawns look great, but grass will not feed your family. So as hard as this may sound, ditch the lawns, and get food in the ground.
6 – Go to the dollar store and stock up on canned sardines in water. Folks, remember the stories we learned in school where the Indians taught the pilgrims how to grow corn by putting fish in the holes? Same goes now as it did then. More and more organic back yard gardeners are discovering this little trick and how cost effective it is. With the cost of organic fertilizer going sky high, this is a very cost effective solution.
7 – Start a worm bin and grow red wiggler worms all your organic food scraps. We have our worm bin by our back door and feed them all our scraps. Worm castings is God’s natural fertilizer. Worm pee is also liquid gold, and a little bit will feed your garden and it will explode.
8 – Learn how to make fish emulsion fertilizer. This is a somewhat time-consuming process and can be stinky, but really good fish emulsion takes a year or two to make from scratch. Like worm casting and worm pee, this is also liquid gold for your garden. With the cost of fertilizer going up, many back yard farmers are going to have to search out alternative plant feeding methods and creating a lot of these on their own. That is if they want to make sure there is food on the table come winter of 2023.
I know that a lot of this sounds scary, but if you plan ahead, you and your family will weather this coming storm and it is my hope that I have been some part of helping you get you and your family prepared.
Please do me a favor, and if you have not done so, follow me on Facebook, Instagram and You Tube.
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I will be producing a LOT of content to help you are your family for what is coming down the pipe.
I don’t believe in all the Hollywood doom and gloom stuff out there, but there are some serious issues that are coming that I will be covering and hopefully helping you prepare for these things.
If you have any questions, please contact me – [email protected] and I will be more than happy to help answer any questions that you might have.
Finally, please share this article with anyone and everyone. Things are going to get rough out there. With inflation, recession and a growing food shortage, the more people that we care about and help the better.
Think about it, do you want to feed your neighbor or would you rather help your neighbor with growing his own garden?
Finally, I want to leave you with some wisdom from scripture…
Proverbs 6:6-8 ESV Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest.
Proverbs 30:24-25 ESV Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer;
Proverbs 20:4 ESV The sluggard does not plow in the autumn; he will seek at harvest and have nothing.
I appreciate you taking the time to read this article. Look for more like this and if there is a topic that you would like me to research and write on, just let me know and I will look more into it.
Keep Pushing Forward!