If you have been a long-time reader/viewer of my articles and videos, you know that I have been warning for some time now that we will see mass food shortages to the point of famine in most of the world.
Now, will famine hit here in the US?
No, we are one of the few nations that can produce all the input needs – fuel, fertilizer, seed, national supply chains, etc. We have the ability to grow a lot of food for our nation’s needs.
BUT… here is the sticking point.
Because we are a significant food producer, the rest of the world will be coming to us as their global grocery store.
What this, in turn, will cause is food here to go up massively in price.
It is the simple rule of supply and demand. The world will show up on our doorstep with heaps of money, and whoever has the most money will get the food.
So even though we have the capacity to produce a lot of food, the average American family will be in competition with countries with bigger wallets.
Below is a map of the world and the nations that need to import food, nations that import and export and the nations that have enough to export, mainly the US.
Every nation that has an “X” on will be in trouble because they either have can’t import enough, or do not have the fuel, fertilizer, seed, supply chains ect to maintain a steady food supply.
NOTE -that the US, Canada (because we are neighbors) and Australia in blue are the only countries that do not have an “X” because we/they do not need to import anything to sustain our/their nation. Red, orange and yellow countries are also in trouble due to importing a lot of their food.
The Bad News – The Weather
In the short term, the next two to three years, we are going to see about 50% higher prices than last year on hundreds if not thousands of food items.
This is because this last year and our current year, we have been facing drought, snow storms, and massive floods. Our nation’s weather has been hammering the agricultural arena.
And the bad news for this year is that we are looking at a mega El-Nino weather system taking place.
That means some parts of the country, like Kansas is feeling right now, will see harsh droughts. And other areas, like the Ohio Valley and Appalachian areas, will probably see excessive rains and floods.
Both situations are not the greatest for growing crops.
The extreme weather changes this year alone have already left many growers behind schedule. This hurts us as a nation because our food production “carryover” from 2022 only took us to March 2023. Usually, our food production carryover takes us well into June and sometimes even July.
This means we are no longer talking about temporary food inflation but a new normal where prices are more expensive and do not return to historical averages, at least for the next couple of years.
The Bad News – The Repercussions of the Russia / Ukraine War
Can you guess what two nations fed most of the world from the grains they grew?
Yep, Russia and Ukraine.
The global inventory of maize, rice, wheat, barley, and oats is 11% lower than before the Ukraine crisis broke out in February 2022. So there has been absolutely no grain carryover to feed the many nations that depend on the grains grown by these two countries.
Because of this, the cost of grains for many countries, excluding the US, is 26% higher compared to 2021 levels. The 2022 numbers are still being crunched, but the percentage number tossed around out there adds a third more to the cost. So, from 26% to roughly 33% higher prices from 2022, which, if you were like me, you saw those prices rise last year as well.
Playing devil’s advocate, let’s add another one-third to the 33%, and we are looking at roughly 44%.
Here in the US, we have seen an 18% rise in essential commodities, with another 8% – 9% and higher in 2023.
This in and of itself is already impacting families that are struggling to make ends meet.
Other parts of the world are seeing a 33% – 44% rise in food procurement costs.
What does one call 44% in food cost/food insecurity, especially when the world is already in a global financial situation/recession?
It is called global famine because, like it or not, much of the world does live on bread or some other grain product alone. Again look at the map above.
Where’s The Beef, or Any Meat For That Matter?
Fourth of July is right around the corner, and the bad news is that people need to expect not so many shrimps on the bar-b-cue.
In fact, all of the top beef steak cuts like fillet, scotch fillet, porterhouse, T-bone, rump, round, as well as ribeye, brisket, lamb chops, chicken legs, and pork, and even humbler alternatives like ground beef, sausages, and hamburgers are going to cost between 12.8% to 25% more this summer compared to a year ago, and about 45% to 55% more compared to 2021 levels. This is according to USDA estimates that were recently released.
Why is that?
Well, remember last year when ranchers were selling off their cattle, even their breeding stock, because of the massive droughts that were taking place?
The repercussion of that is smaller herds for 2023.
Many of us took advantage of these fire sales in beef, and the supposed surplus was great.
But now all that extra beef is gone, and the beef supply isn’t coming in as quickly as we like.
So, expect to see more empty shelves and much higher prices as seasonal demand peaks over the next couple of months.
Now more than ever is time to get ahead of these increases and start stocking up on everyday necessities before they become far too expensive and out of our reach.
Looking For A Clean Beef Resource?
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